What makes a good scenario?

Good scenarios are robust, plausible and holistic (robust, plausibel, ganzheitlich).

• Robust: internally consistent and well founded on the influencing factors, so it holds up when questioned. Its projections do not contradict each other.
• Plausible: it could happen given what we know about how the world works. It lies inside the plausible zone of the futures cone, not in pure fantasy, so people take it seriously.
• Holistic (ganzheitlich): it describes a whole world (society, economy, politics, environment, everyday life) and not just a technology. This guards against the gadget future.

A scenario that fails one of these tests is easy to dismiss: an inconsistent one falls apart, an implausible one gets laughed off, and a one-dimensional one misses the effects that matter most.

Go deeper:

• Wikipedia: Scenario planning — plausibility and causal logic as tests for scenario storylines.