Quiz Entry - updated: 2026.10.22
What is backcasting, and how does it differ from forecasting?
Backcasting starts from a desirable future scenario and works backwards to the present, asking which steps, decisions and milestones would lead there. Forecasting goes the other way: it extends present trends forward to predict what is likely.
| Forecasting | Backcasting | |
|---|---|---|
| Direction | Present → future | Desired future → present |
| Question | "What will probably happen?" | "What must happen to get there?" |
| Character | Descriptive, predictive | Normative, action-oriented |
| Zone of the cone | The probable core | The desirable zone |
Backcasting is the last step of the scenario technique and the one that turns scenarios into action: it identifies what to do today. That is why it connects directly to ethics: it only makes sense once you have decided which future is worth reaching. The term was coined by John Robinson in 1982.
Go deeper:
Wikipedia: Backcasting — origin, method and its use in sustainability planning.