What happens in the first step of the scenario technique, the starting situation (Ausgangslage)?

You define the topic precisely and identify the influencing factors (Einflussfaktoren) acting on it today. "Before we look into the future, we must understand where we are now."

This step is analytical and descriptive, not speculative. Its output is a clear topic (for example "the future of immigration to the USA" or "how we will store food") and a list of the forces that shape it, e.g. economy, demographics, technology, climate, politics, values and media.

Why it comes first: scenarios are only as good as their foundations. If a key factor is missing at the start, every later scenario is blind to it, which is the turkey's mistake of not knowing the causes behind its trend. In the German method this step often goes on to rate how strongly the factors influence each other, so the most important ones can be selected.

Go deeper:

• Wikipedia (de): Szenariotechnik — task analysis, the factor list and the influence analysis that follows.