What are the steps of the scenario technique (Szenario-Technik), and what does the method achieve?

Starting situation (analytical, descriptive) → projections (speculative glimpses of the future) → future scenarios → backcasting. It combines quantitative and qualitative knowledge, explores possible developments and the paths to them, and so strengthens our ability to act in uncertain times.

* From today's situation to scenarios, and back again to today *

The steps move from analysis to speculation and back:

1. Starting situation (Ausgangslage): define the topic and its influencing factors today. This part is analytical and descriptive.
2. Projections (Projektionen, Ausschnitte aus der Zukunft): imagine how each factor could develop. This is where speculation begins.
3. Future scenarios (Zukunftsszenarien): bundle projections into a few coherent pictures of the future.
4. Backcasting: work back from a desirable scenario to what must happen today.

What the method achieves:

• it connects quantitative and qualitative sources of knowledge (statistics and trends and expert judgement, values, stories);
• it lets us explore future developments mentally and learn the paths that lead there;
• in doing so it helps us understand the present better;
• it strengthens our agency in uncertain times.

Go deeper:

• Wikipedia: Scenario planning — origins at RAND and Shell, and how scenarios are built.
• Wikipedia (de): Szenariotechnik — the German method with the scenario funnel and its phases.