What are projections (Projektionen, "Ausschnitte aus der Zukunft") in the scenario technique, and how do they differ from scenarios?
Projections are speculative glimpses of how individual influencing factors could develop by the time horizon. They are many single fragments spread across the cone, not yet complete pictures of the future.
For each influencing factor from the starting situation, you ask: how might this look in 2050? The answers are deliberately varied, from probable to merely possible. Example for immigration: "the economy stagnates", "climate change displaces millions", "AI matches workers to jobs in real time", "a majority sees immigrants as a strength".
The difference from a scenario:
| Projection | Scenario | |
|---|---|---|
| Scope | One factor, one fragment | A whole future world |
| Number | Many | A few (often 3-4) |
| Role | Building blocks | Coherent combination of building blocks |
This is the step where the method turns from analytical to speculative.
Go deeper:
Wikipedia: Morphological box — the grid often used to list each factor's possible developments and combine them.